To benefit from the strong demand for machinery industry
Per capita GDP, industrial output value accounted for the proportion of GDP and the industry employment proportion data show that China has entered the middle stage of industrialization, and the salient features of the middle stage of industrialization is the substantial increase in the demand for heavy machinery, engineering machinery, machine tools, ships and metallurgical and mining machinery. From the manufacturing industry in Japan and South Korea in the mid industrialization development experience, machinery manufacturing industry in the manufacturing industry accounted for the proportion will continue to increase, in the process of China's industrialization, our long-term prospects machinery industry investment opportunities.
We found that, despite the appreciation of the currency and labor costs continued to rise, but segments of the industry and the development trend of different, engineering machinery, metallurgical and mining machinery, machine tools, and shipbuilding industry as a representative of the heavy machinery maintained a sustained growth in revenues and profits, and on the export side, the segments of the industry growth rate is also far more than the industry average growth rate. Engineering machinery, metallurgical and mining machinery and machine tool rapid development first benefit to strong demand in Japan, in the cultivation of the domestic market and related enterprises have gradually the competitiveness in the international market, and to rely on technological upgrading and improving the labor production efficiency can overcome the difficulties of currency appreciation and rising labor costs, the shipbuilding industry is benefiting from when the global shipbuilding industry from Western Europe to Japan's transfer. Comprehensive point of view, at present the global shipbuilding industry is accelerating to transfer to China, the mechanical engineering benefit from strong substantial growth in demand and export business of the domestic market, metallurgical and mining machinery benefit in the process of industrialization of coal and steel demand, we are optimistic about the 2008 shipbuilding, engineering machinery, metallurgical and mining machinery and other segments of the industry, and in the choice of the enterprise, we are more optimistic about the with connotative growth and epitaxial expansion ability of the enterprise.
Shipbuilding Industry: China's accelerated rise
We believe that the global shipbuilding boom is expected to continue until 2011. Despite the global economic growth in 2008 fell, but according to the International Monetary Fund forecasts, in 2008 global economic growth will remain high at 4.8%, and according to the prediction of Clarkson, global maritime trade growth will still maintain high operation. Therefore, we think that the decline in global economic growth may affect the 2008 New ship orders, but does not lead to the global shipbuilding cycle ahead of the end of. We believe that the current round of shipbuilding business cycle is expected to be a continuation of the rotation of different types of ship business cycle.
For shipbuilding enterprises in the next few years of profitability, we believe that even if the global shipbuilding boom cycle ahead of the fall, it will not affect the profitability of shipbuilding enterprises. Orders for new ships from the point of view, the global shipbuilding enterprises orders for new ships has been arranged to 2012, in 2006 hand-held orders / completion quantity calculation, at present global shipyard orders on hand is sufficient to support production in the next four years required. At the same time, global shipyard work full, dock tense situation prompted a new ship cost rising, worthy of our attention is, the world's shipyards will be in 2008 began production in 2006 new ground high ship orders and sustained profitability in the shipbuilding enterprises in the future.
We believe that the early end of the shipbuilding boom will accelerate the rise of China's shipbuilding industry. By analyzing the process of Korean shipbuilding industry in the mid 90's to catch up with Japan, we find that labor cost advantage and government support are the important factors to win the Korean shipbuilding industry. China's shipbuilding enterprises at present relative to Japan and South Korea have obvious labor and steel cost advantage, but in the ship with the localization rate and production efficiency with Japan and South Korea have a certain gap, but the state has already increased investment to ship with industry. We expect the ship with localization rate will be greatly improved, from the current domestic technology leading shipbuilding companies, the dock cycle reached 50 days, close to Japan and South Korea 40 to 30 days. Combined with the rise of the Korean shipbuilding industry experience, we believe that in the context of a significant cost advantage, once the global shipbuilding boom cycle appears to accelerate the rise of China Shipbuilding industry.